Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Closes August 18, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$278K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
8% / 8%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida…
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
7% YES
Mar 23, 2026
Current
8% YES (-0.6pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $278K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on August 18, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/704477
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