Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Closes April 30, 2027
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$971
Liquidity
$81K
Bid / Ask
9% / 10%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
10%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential…
2027
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
11% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Current
10% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+5.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $971 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2027.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/679030
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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