Markets/Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC

Closes July 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$23K

Bid / Ask

1% / 3%

Spread

1.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.4pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 10, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 11, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on July 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1088119

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