Markets/Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 08:16 AM UTC

Closes September 13, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$26K

Bid / Ask

2% / 3%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

2% YES

Mar 13, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-2.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly2.4%

½ Kelly1.2%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 2.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on September 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's US Open?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1088479

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