Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?
Closes June 3, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$187K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
6% / 6%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province…
2026
32 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
6% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Current
6% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 28, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $187K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/687271
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Venue Divergence
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