Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$3K
Bid / Ask
7% / 47%
Spread
40.90pp
Expert Signal
34%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
25% YES
Mar 27, 2026
Biggest move: -8.7pp
32% → 24%
Mar 27, 2026
Peak probability
35% YES — highest in period
Mar 27, 2026
Current
26% YES (+2.7pp recent)
Mar 27, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.6%
EV per $ wagered
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?" at 34% YES / 66% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 34%. The bid-ask spread is 40.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on December 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 34%, NO 66%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1302400
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