Markets/Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:51 PM UTC

Closes July 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$214

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

1% / 1%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+100.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

1% YES

Mar 13, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 14, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

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EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $214 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on July 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1087905

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