Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$491
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
15% / 19%
Spread
4.00pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first…
2026
13 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
17% YES
Mar 20, 2026
Current
14% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $491 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 4.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1365854
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.