Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$247
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2026
21 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
1% YES
Mar 8, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 10, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-16.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $247 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1469754
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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