Markets/Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:02 AM UTC

Closes May 27, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$411K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

10%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-33.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

43% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

6% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -16.0pp

34% → 18%

Mar 4, 2026

Current

10% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 10%99%

Buy YES@ 10¢

Edge

+5.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 91¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+5.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 10%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on May 27, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/566188