Markets/Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:31 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

4% / 7%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

7% YES — lowest in period

Feb 27, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 5, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 95¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996328