Markets/Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 06:00 AM UTC

Closes March 24, 2026

Polymarket Price

86%YES

14%NO

Volume 24h

$31K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

85% / 86%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

86%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark…

2026

Full event →

the next prime minister of Denmark after the

86%

the next prime minister of Denmark after the

13%

the next prime minister of Denmark after the

7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+4.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

82% YES

Mar 8, 2026

Trough probability

71% YES — lowest in period

Mar 8, 2026

Biggest move: +8.5pp

71% → 79%

Mar 9, 2026

Current

86% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 86%99%

Buy YES@ 86¢

Edge

+0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.4%

½ Kelly1.7%

Buy NO@ 15¢

-3.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?" at 86% YES / 14% NO. In the last 24 hours, $31K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 86%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 86%, NO 14%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1451224