Markets/Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 07:54 AM UTC

Closes October 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$13K

Liquidity

$47K

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

-11.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 98¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly11.1%

½ Kelly5.6%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 11.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $13K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The market closes on October 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1500770