Markets/Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 06:02 AM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

1%YES

99%NO

Volume 24h

$10

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

1% / 2%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+42.9pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-3.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Current

3% YES (+0.3pp recent)

Mar 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 1%99%

Buy YES@ 1¢

-28.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 99¢

Edge

+0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly28.6%

½ Kelly14.3%

Buy NO—+0.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 28.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349158

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