Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Closes December 19, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$139K
Liquidity
$37K
Bid / Ask
6% / 9%
Spread
2.90pp
Expert Signal
7%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup?
2026
9 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
8% YES
Mar 11, 2026
Biggest move: +10.0pp
4% → 14%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
14% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
5% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-2.8%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 7% YES / 93% NO. In the last 24 hours, $139K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 7%. The bid-ask spread is 2.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 7%, NO 93%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349160
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.