Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$55K
Bid / Ask
13% / 13%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
14%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
2026
14 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
12% YES
Feb 22, 2026
Biggest move: -8.6pp
19% → 10%
Mar 15, 2026
Peak probability
19% YES — highest in period
Mar 14, 2026
Current
13% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.9%
EV per $ wagered
+0.3%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?" at 13% YES / 87% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 13%, NO 87%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1105744
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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