Markets/Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:32 AM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

82%YES

18%NO

Volume 24h

$14K

Liquidity

$47K

Bid / Ask

81% / 83%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

82%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+9.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

73% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Trough probability

62% YES — lowest in period

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: -13.5pp

76% → 62%

Feb 28, 2026

Peak probability

85% YES — highest in period

Mar 20, 2026

Current

82% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 82%99%

Buy YES@ 82¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 18¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?" at 82% YES / 18% NO. In the last 24 hours, $14K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 82%, NO 18%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/631181