Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$76K
Liquidity
$42K
Bid / Ask
99% / 99%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
98%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
92% YES
Feb 21, 2026
Trough probability
85% YES — lowest in period
Feb 28, 2026
Biggest move: +6.0pp
85% → 91%
Mar 1, 2026
Peak probability
99% YES — highest in period
Mar 19, 2026
Current
99% YES (+0.3pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
-9.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?" at 99% YES / 1% NO. In the last 24 hours, $76K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 98%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 99%, NO 1%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/676710
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Venue Divergence
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