Markets/Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:34 PM UTC

Closes June 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$5K

Bid / Ask

2% / 4%

Spread

1.40pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-4.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Feb 21, 2026

Current

1% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

Edge

+9.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.1%

Buy NO@ 97¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+9.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.40 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/996331

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