Markets/Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 06:21 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

30%YES

71%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$353

Bid / Ask

20% / 39%

Spread

19.00pp

Expert Signal

30%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-17.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

57% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Trough probability

35% YES — lowest in period

Mar 16, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 11, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 14, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 15, 2026

Biggest move: -12.0pp

47% → 35%

Mar 16, 2026

Current

40% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 17, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 30%99%

Buy YES@ 30¢

Edge

+1.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 71¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?" at 30% YES / 70% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 30%. The bid-ask spread is 19.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 30%, NO 70%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1345235