Markets/Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 01:34 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

9%YES

91%NO

Volume 24h

$12K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

9% / 10%

Spread

0.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-7.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Feb 25, 2026

Trough probability

4% YES — lowest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Biggest move: +12.3pp

5% → 17%

Mar 21, 2026

Current

9% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 9%99%

Buy YES@ 9¢

-3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 91¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly3.2%

½ Kelly1.6%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 3.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $12K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 0.90 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/693720