Markets/Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 05:46 PM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$10

Liquidity

$38K

Bid / Ask

1% / 3%

Spread

1.80pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+21.2pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Current

5% YES (-1.6pp recent)

Mar 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+21.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+21.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349164

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