Markets/Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:42 PM UTC

Closes April 4, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES

95%NO

Volume 24h

$111K

Liquidity

$180K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

2026

Full event →

the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

18%

the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+2.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

3% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.4pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 5%99%

Buy YES@ 5¢

-5.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.7%

½ Kelly2.8%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $111K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/658928