Markets/Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$21K

Liquidity

$89K

Bid / Ask

15% / 15%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+5.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

14% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Peak probability

20% YES — highest in period

Mar 3, 2026

Current

19% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 3, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 15%99%

Buy YES@ 15¢

-1.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 85¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.0%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472548

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