Markets/Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:27 AM UTC

Closes December 19, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$38K

Bid / Ask

4% / 4%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-2.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 20, 2026

Current

4% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

Edge

+12.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 96¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+12.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on December 19, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1349167

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