Markets/Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 03:29 AM UTC

Closes May 7, 2026

Polymarket Price

96%YES

4%NO

Volume 24h

$370

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

95% / 97%

Spread

2.40pp

Expert Signal

96%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+3.7pp

Key Moments

First recorded

93% YES

Mar 18, 2026

Current

96% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 96%99%

Buy YES@ 96¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly5.9%

½ Kelly2.9%

Buy NO@ 4¢

-5.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 5.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?" at 96% YES / 4% NO. In the last 24 hours, $370 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 96%. The bid-ask spread is 2.40 percentage points. The market closes on May 7, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 96%, NO 4%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/922766