Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$376
Liquidity
$23K
Bid / Ask
2% / 3%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
3%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of United…
2026
20 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 12, 2026
Current
3% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 22, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+20.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $376 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1343461
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