Markets/Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?

Data as of Mar 26, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$7K

Liquidity

$10K

Bid / Ask

3% / 3%

Spread

0.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 25, 2026

Biggest move: -9.5pp

13% → 4%

Mar 26, 2026

Current

3% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 26, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-4.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly4.8%

½ Kelly2.4%

Buy NO—+0.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 4.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-26). "Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1720657

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