Markets/Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:01 PM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

63%YES

37%NO

Volume 24h

$3K

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

62% / 63%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

63%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-13.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

76% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

52% YES — lowest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Biggest move: -21.5pp

73% → 52%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

84% YES — highest in period

Mar 13, 2026

Current

63% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 63%99%

Buy YES@ 63¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 37¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1089011