Markets/Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:13 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

82%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

14% / 22%

Spread

8.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-9.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

25% YES

Mar 11, 2026

Trough probability

16% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -18.0pp

34% → 16%

Mar 21, 2026

Peak probability

38% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

16% YES (+0.5pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 82¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 8.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/677139