Markets/Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:40 AM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

63%YES

38%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$158K

Bid / Ask

62% / 63%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

63%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?

Full event →

Péter Magyar?

63%

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

63% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 63%99%

Buy YES@ 63¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.3%

½ Kelly0.7%

Buy NO@ 38¢

-1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?" at 63% YES / 37% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 63%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 63%, NO 37%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/567561