Markets/Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 08:23 AM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

36%YES

65%NO

Volume 24h

$33K

Liquidity

$189K

Bid / Ask

35% / 36%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?

Full event →

Péter Magyar?

64%

Viktor Orbán?

36%

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

36% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Current

36% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 24, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 36%99%

Buy YES@ 36¢

Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 65¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $33K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/567560