Markets/Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 07:12 AM UTC

Closes March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

18%YES

83%NO

Volume 24h

$74K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

56% / 58%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

18%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 16-22?

March

Full event →

between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?

59%

between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 22?

36%

between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 22?

between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 22?

above $78,000 on March 23?

between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 22?

between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 22?

$78,000 March 16-22?

$80,000 March 16-22?

above $80,000 on March 23?

between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 22?

between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 22?

$78,000 on March 21?

between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 22?

greater than $80,000 on March 22?

15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

16% YES

Mar 15, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

54%

Mar 21, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

18%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: -42.5pp

61% → 18%

Mar 22, 2026

Peak probability

64% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

18% YES (-1.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 18%99%

Buy YES@ 18¢

Edge

+2.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 83¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $74K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 22?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1598699