Markets/Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29?

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29?

Data as of Mar 28, 2026, 04:11 AM UTC

Closes March 29, 2026

Polymarket Price

43%YES

57%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

42% / 44%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

38%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-11.7pp

confidence40%

methodbayesian

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+24.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

65% YES

Mar 22, 2026

Trough probability

37% YES — lowest in period

Mar 22, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

37%

Mar 22, 2026

Biggest move: +24.0pp

37% → 61%

Mar 22, 2026

Current

89% YES (+1.5pp recent)

Mar 25, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 43%99%

Buy YES@ 43¢

Edge

+1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 57¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29?" at 43% YES / 57% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 29, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-28). "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 29?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 43%, NO 57%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1683289