Markets/Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:00 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

60%YES

41%NO

Volume 24h

$24K

Liquidity

$88K

Bid / Ask

59% / 60%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

Export CSV

Price History

+1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

44% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Current

45% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 15, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 60%99%

Buy YES@ 60¢

Edge

+0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.2%

½ Kelly0.6%

Buy NO@ 41¢

-1.2%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.8% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.2%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" at 60% YES / 40% NO. In the last 24 hours, $24K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 60%, NO 40%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/665374

Go Deeper

⬡

Entity Hub

All related markets, signals, and news in one view.

◎

Forecaster Signals

See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.

⇄

Venue Divergence

Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.

Correlated Markets

Markets whose prices move with this one.