Markets/Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 03:00 PM UTC

Closes December 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$48

Liquidity

$17K

Bid / Ask

5% / 7%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 12, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

5% → 11%

Mar 15, 2026

Peak probability

12% YES — highest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Current

7% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $48 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168135