Markets/Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:59 PM UTC

Closes December 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

25%YES

75%NO

Volume 24h

$364

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

22% / 33%

Spread

10.80pp

Expert Signal

27%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+30.8pp

Key Moments

First recorded

9% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: +14.1pp

10% → 24%

Mar 12, 2026

Peak probability

42% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

40% YES (-0.2pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 25%99%

Buy YES@ 25¢

Edge

+1.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.5%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 75¢

-0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.5%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $364 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 27%. The bid-ask spread is 10.80 percentage points. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168139