Markets/Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 03:00 PM UTC

Closes December 9, 2026

Polymarket Price

3%YES

97%NO

Volume 24h

$915

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

3% / 4%

Spread

1.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+2.2pp

Key Moments

First recorded

0% YES

Mar 7, 2026

Biggest move: +6.0pp

4% → 10%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

10% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

2% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 3%99%

Buy YES@ 3¢

-13.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 97¢

Edge

+0.5%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly13.0%

½ Kelly6.5%

Buy NO—+0.5% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 13.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?" at 3% YES / 97% NO. In the last 24 hours, $915 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 3%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 9, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 3%, NO 97%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168142