Markets/Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 09:51 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

17%YES

84%NO

Volume 24h

$263K

Liquidity

$1.7M

Expert Signal

17%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

18% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Biggest move: +5.0pp

14% → 20%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

17% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 17%99%

Buy YES@ 17¢

Edge

+3.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 84¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" at 17% YES / 83% NO. In the last 24 hours, $263K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 17%. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 17%, NO 83%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/703257

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