Markets/Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 12:22 AM UTC

Closes April 21, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

73%YES

27%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$42K

Bid / Ask

72% / 74%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

75%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

74% YES

Mar 21, 2026

Current

74% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 73%99%

Buy YES@ 73¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 27¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?" at 73% YES / 27% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 75%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 73%, NO 27%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1450859

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