Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Closes March 24, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
10% / 11%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
11%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Mona Juul be the next prime minister of Denmark…
2026
7 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
12% YES
Mar 8, 2026
Biggest move: -6.0pp
20% → 14%
Mar 19, 2026
Peak probability
20% YES — highest in period
Mar 9, 2026
Current
12% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Mar 23, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+4.8%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 11%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 24, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1451226
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Forecaster Signals
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
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