Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES

78%NO

Volume 24h

$21

Liquidity

$2K

Bid / Ask

21% / 24%

Spread

2.80pp

Expert Signal

22%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+12.1pp

Key Moments

First recorded

11% YES

Mar 5, 2026

Biggest move: +9.5pp

11% → 21%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

24% YES — highest in period

Mar 19, 2026

Current

23% YES (+0.4pp recent)

Mar 20, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 78¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%

½ Kelly0.6%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 2.80 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006077