Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:41 AM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

20%YES

81%NO

Volume 24h

$17

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

17% / 22%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

20%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-12.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

39% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Trough probability

14% YES — lowest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: -18.0pp

33% → 15%

Mar 7, 2026

Current

27% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 20%99%

Buy YES@ 20¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 81¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?" at 20% YES / 80% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 20%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 20%, NO 80%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006079