Markets/Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:03 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

Polymarket Price

8%YES

92%NO

Volume 24h

$163

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

7% / 9%

Spread

1.90pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+1.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

6% YES

Mar 2, 2026

Biggest move: +17.9pp

15% → 33%

Mar 6, 2026

Peak probability

35% YES — highest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Current

8% YES (-0.6pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 8%99%

Buy YES@ 8¢

Edge

+4.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.4%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO@ 92¢

-0.4%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+4.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.4%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $163 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1006073