Markets/Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?

Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:48 AM UTC

Polymarket Price

14%YES

86%NO

Volume 24h

Liquidity

$88

Bid / Ask

4% / 23%

Spread

19.00pp

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+13.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

42% YES

Mar 9, 2026

Trough probability

27% YES — lowest in period

Mar 10, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

55%

Mar 10, 2026

Biggest move: +28.0pp

27% → 55%

Mar 10, 2026

Current

55% YES (+28.0pp recent)

Mar 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 14%99%

Buy YES@ 14¢

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EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 86¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The bid-ask spread is 19.00 percentage points.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1124313

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