Will the Republican Party control the House after the…
2026
Consensus Probability
8%
Weak40%
Polymarket10% avg · 3 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Outcome Breakdown
No Change8%
Implied total (sum of outcomes)16%
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change) | 4% | $56K | child |
| Polymarket | Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?(No Change) | 12% | $41K | child |
| Polymarket | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 16% | $16K | standalone |