Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Closes November 3, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$4K
Liquidity
$220K
Bid / Ask
15% / 16%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
16%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the Republican Party control the House after the…
2026
4 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+3.2%
EV per $ wagered
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/562803
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