Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in…
March 2026
Consensus Probability
4%
Weak5%
Polymarket16% avg · 6 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | 3% | $152K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will there be between 14 and 17 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | 5% | $102K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | 72% | $883 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | 0% | $747 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | 19% | $657 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will there be between 18 and 21 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | 0% | $580 | standalone |