Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?
Closes April 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$883
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
69% / 74%
Spread
5.00pp
Expert Signal
72%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in…
March 2026
6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-1.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?" at 72% YES / 28% NO. In the last 24 hours, $883 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 72%, NO 28%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1439531
Go Deeper
Entity Hub
All related markets, signals, and news in one view.
Forecaster Signals
See all markets where experts diverge from Polymarket prices.
Venue Divergence
Where Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt disagree most.
Correlated Markets
Markets whose prices move with this one.
Event Cluster
All markets about the same event across venues.
Download 90d CSV
Full price history for your own analysis.