Will Pablo Arízaga win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?
2026
Consensus Probability
7%
Moderate75%
Polymarket7% avg · 2 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. Some spread between venues — treat as directional signal.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Franz Tata García win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election? | 6% | $217 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Pablo Arízaga win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election? | 7% | $215 | standalone |